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I have just finished a short web commentary for the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)on "Unemployment Trends and Economic Recovery." It should be up on the AIER website on Monday.

What the Labor Department data shows is that there HAS NOT been a great depression-like economy-wide fall in employment over the last 12 months.

Rather, the signficant declines in jobs have been clustered in sectors of the economy that represent high-order good production (housing construction) or durable goods production (auto industry related employments) for the most part. Here there are between 11 to 14 percent less employment.

This should not be too surprising for an "Austrian."

Throughout most other sectors (except for some retail businesses like department and clothing stores where employment is down between 3 and 5 percent compared to last November) only 1 to 3 percent of the work force has been let go by employers.

And some sectors have been experiencing signficant INCREASES in employment over the last 12 months, particularly oil, gas, and coal (up about 9.5 percent). Obviously, this has been due to the run-up in energy prices and the profiability of production expansion. But even since energy prices began to fall in mid-summer, employment has continued to grow in these sectors.

And not too surprising, employment has continued to grow in government (1 to 1.6 percent) at the local, state and federal levels.

More people are employed, also, in education (up 3.6 percent) and in health care and related services (up 2.9 percent) compared to 10 months ago.

Once one looks beneath the "maco" surface, and focuses instead on the sectoral shifts and changes, not only does it appear far less than a Great Depression-like employment crisis, but the post-boom larger unemployment is more or less where an "Austrian" would expect it, given the misdirection of capital and labor during the upswing of the business cycle.

Richard Ebeling

The Logical Song

or even "Right (right!), you're bloody well right. You gotta right to say..."

I meant to point this out the other day to someone, but I forgot. I saw a commercial from every taxpayer's best friend the National Automobile Dealer's Associations (NADA).

They were making a point that there are no financing problems. They have a special website set up for it off their home page. Their you can view their commercial and the related FAQ.

http://www.nada.org/Advocacy+Outreach/Auto+Financing+Resources/

I would suggest not looking at the homepage. You will only want to yell, "Bull S---!"

I meant to point this out the other day to someone, but I forgot. I saw a commercial from every taxpayer's best friend the National Automobile Dealer's Associations (NADA).

They were making a point that there are no financing problems. They have a special website set up for it off their home page. Their you can view their commercial and the related FAQ.

http://www.nada.org/Advocacy+Outreach/Auto+Financing+Resources/

I would suggest not looking at the homepage. You will only want to yell, "Bull S---!"

If all you see is a handful of businesses in a narrow sector, then your economic vision will be grossly distorted. The narrower your blinders, the greater your lack of vision.

It's no wonder that if all you look at are just banks that traded in bad mortgages, that you might think the economy is failing. Or looked just at overregulated domestic automobile manufacturers. It's also no wonder that media companies that are struggling to make a profit in the new online era are the quickest to report that the market is tanking.

If all you see is a handful of businesses in a narrow sector, then your economic vision will be grossly distorted. The narrower your blinders, the greater your lack of vision.

It's no wonder that if all you look at are just banks that traded in bad mortgages, that you might think the economy is failing. Or looked just at overregulated domestic automobile manufacturers. It's also no wonder that media companies that are struggling to make a profit in the new online era are the quickest to report that the market is tanking.

p.s. Not that I'm claiming the opposite. Just that this ain't necessarily GDII.

I am open to the possibility that Bernanke means well but has bad theories. I stopped believing Paulson months ago, though. He and Kashkari can't keep their story straight.

If you are still thinking that the TARP stuff is a matter of incompetence, check out this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aiq3I0o_SHA&eurl=http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2008/11/issa-slips-up.html

You don't have to watch the whole 9 minutes. Just watch until you see Issa's slip-up. Not in so many words, Issa is saying, "I thought it was Paulson and us lying to the taxpayers. Now we find out he was lying to us too??!"

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